It Turns Out I Was Completely Wrong

Back in September, even with the government shutdown looming, I was sure that the economy was picking up thanks to a string of low jobless claims numbers, the fed taper delay, and the resulting drop in mortgage interest rates spurring, in my opinion, renewed vigor in the housing market.

The release of a dismal employment report made me realize that the way I reach forecasting conclusions is simply wrong. So where did I go wrong? Is it as simple as admitting that I failed to take into account the magnitude of the damage caused by the shutdown? That’s probably it as it did cause consumer confidence to drop. Since the situation in Washington is not going to change at least until the next election, I can count on two headwinds: austerity and bickering. That might actually be a good thing: perhaps if we prevent a real recovery from taking hold we also prevent the next recession from brewing too soon and I can look forward to a few more years like this. That’s certainly better than 2009, but I do keep my eyes on household formation. Where are those new families living? Isn’t there huge pent-up demand for housing construction?

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