It Turns Out I Was Completely Wrong

Back in September, even with the government shutdown looming, I was sure that the economy was picking up thanks to a string of low jobless claims numbers, the fed taper delay, and the resulting drop in mortgage interest rates spurring, in my opinion, renewed vigor in the housing market.

The release of a dismal employment report made me realize that the way I reach forecasting conclusions is simply wrong. So where did I go wrong? Is it as simple as admitting that I failed to take into account the magnitude of the damage caused by the shutdown? That’s probably it as it did cause consumer confidence to drop. Since the situation in Washington is not going to change at least until the next election, I can count on two headwinds: austerity and bickering. That might actually be a good thing: perhaps if we prevent a real recovery from taking hold we also prevent the next recession from brewing too soon and I can look forward to a few more years like this. That’s certainly better than 2009, but I do keep my eyes on household formation. Where are those new families living? Isn’t there huge pent-up demand for housing construction?

Campomaggi on Enjoyment and Excitement

The third and fourth e-mails by Campomaggi about life as a journey explore what has motivated him to do what he does and hints at the feelings that should be evoked by his products. The two key words are “piacere” and “emozione”, two words that are hard to translate because they point to feelings that have a wide continuum of possibilities.

Piacere means pleasure but I translated it with the more subtle enjoyment, which is a more lasting feeling. Consider that Marco started working with leather when he was extremely young. I think that it is a safe bet to say that he has always enjoyed it. He goes on to say that the work of our hands (he refers to cooking) is what we enjoy to consume the most because it is the result of many attempts at achieving perfection and every attempt is a little bit unique.

Emozione means emotion but a better translation is excitement as it relates to experiencing feelings. Marco says that it is when we are capable of experiencing feelings that we can get excited and in order to get excited we need to make choices that are dictated by our personality and experiences.

When you are choosing a Campomaggi bag, keep this in mind. Which bag speaks to what excites you? It seems that Campomaggi has really tried to feel every emotion and there is a Campomaggi bag for everyone. If you are shopping for a Campomaggi bag, you have to spend considerable time with the few that rise at the top–just as we say on our home page: get to know it first.

Ten Year Anniversary Celebration: Day 17

Today, we are down to our #5 bestselling items of all time! As we get closer to the #1 bestsellers, the items that are offered at a 10% discount will be get better and better! Don’t forget to check out the weekly giveaways that we are offering every Wednesday. The prizes are still building up to a big one at the end of the month! To see what the #5 bestsellers are, visit our Celebration Page for the 10% off coupon code on the items listed! This offer will be good through Friday, October 18, 2013 at Midnight Pacific Time. Don’t miss out!

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SOLDO Italian Leather Passcase Wallet by Giudi

Keep an eye out for the #4 bestsellers next Tuesday and the Week 4 Giveaways next Wednesday!

Our Week 3 Giveaways: Giudi and Sara & Blair

We have kicked off Week 3 with our #6 bestselling items yesterday. That means the Week 3 Giveaways have finally arrived! We will be announcing the winners of the Week 3 Giveaways next Wednesday and post the Week 4 Giveaways! As the weeks go by, the stakes will be higher and the prizes will get better! Keep checking back if you want a chance to win something BIG!

The winners of the Week 2 Giveaways are:

Victor N.  for a Kazari ornament of his choice

Kirsten E. for a Rosa ring of her choice

CONGRATULATIONS! We will contact you shortly!!

Now for the Week 3 Giveaway…

a Rafflecopter giveaway

 

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VOLARE Passport Cover by Giudi

 

If you are selected as the winner of a VOLARE Passport Cover, you get to select the color of your choice!

 

Paua Chunky ring

Paua Chunky Segmented Ring

 

If you are selected as the winner of a Paua Chunky Segmented Ring, you get the size of your choice!

Ten Year Anniversary Celebration: Week 3

Wow, we are already on Week 3 of our Ten Year Anniversary Celebration! Time sure goes by fast when there is so much going on! Today, we are featuring the #6 bestselling items. Head on over to our Celebration Page for the selection of products that made it to the #6 spot! Remember, the 10% off coupon code is only available for a limited time. The offer ends on Wednesday, October 16, 2013 Midnight Pacific Time.

Tomorrow, we will be announcing the Week 3 Giveaway items! Stay tuned for more!

 

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#6, Nobile by Campomaggi

Nothing To Look at Here

With no economic data coming through and with the next date for a fiscal debate yet to be set I am making the final holiday purchasing decisions in the dark. It will be interesting to see if my gut feeling was right or wrong.

The forecast for this year points to moderate growth. I think that December this year can post better-than-expected growth over last year because last year was disappointing. I am pretending that the default will not happen and that our politicians will be gracious enough this year to keep themselves out of the spotlight until January or later.

After the last Bernanke postponement, I have noticed that interest rates, including mortgage rates, have dropped and the housing market, which seemed to have fallen dormant is definitely showing signs of revival in my neighborhood–whether this is a national trend we’ll get to see when economic data resumes.

In summary, the economy seems to be holding up its slow, but growing, pace. I also still think that a real recovery (sustained 3% growth or higher for at least a couple of years) could happen before the next recession hits. Yet, that is starting to look like wishful thinking because our fiscal policy appears to be leaning towards austerity for a while. Perhaps I should stop wishing for it as a mild recovery might be a sign of the necessary de-leveraging of household and it might suggest that the next recession will be milder than the last.

Ten Year Anniversary Celebration: Day 10

Now that we are on the 10th day of our 10-year anniversary celebration, the bestselling items and giveaways are getting better and better! Check out our Celebration Page for 10% off of the #7 bestselling items of all time! This offer will be good through Friday, October 11, 2013 Midnight Pacific Time, so hurry on over!

We will be posting the #6 bestsellers next week on Tuesday, October 15, 2013 and Week 3 Giveaways next Wednesday! More goodies are on the way!

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Our Week 2 Giveaways: La Cuoieria and Yoshioka-san

Today is the second Wednesday of October, meaning…we have another giveaway going on! Two randomly selected winners will be announced next Wednesday and the Week 3 giveaways will begin! But first, let’s see who the winners of Week 1′s Giveaways were:

Jamie H. for a Gianni Cell Phone Charm of your choice
Laurie A. for a Marco Key Fob

CONGRATULATIONS! We will contact you shortly!

>> Enter Giveaway <<

Gianni’s ROSA hand-molded leather rose ring

If you are selected as the winner of a Gianni leather rose ring you get to pick your favorite color ring!

 

Unique Kazari ornaments by Yoshioka-san

…Or if you are selected as the winner of a Kazari ornament, you get to choose the pattern of your choice!

 

Ten Year Anniversary Celebration: Week 2, Day 8

Today starts Week 2 of our Ten Year Anniversary Celebration! We are featuring our #8 bestselling items on our Celebration Page so come take a look at what we are offering! The 10% off coupon code will be good through Wednesday, October 9th, 2013 Midnight PDT.

We will be posting the #7 bestsellers on Thursday, October 10, 2013 and Week 2 Giveaways tomorrow! Keep checking back and tell your friends! We have lots of things going on this month. :)

 

Beltrami Campomaggi Vertical Tote Latte

Beltrami Vertical Tote by Campomaggi, #8

It’s Hard to Tell

Without an employment report published for September it is hard to tell how things are going. My sense was, and still is, that things were beginning to get better, and by that I mean that the economy was finally taking a step in the right direction towards the goal of solid economic growth–which is still far away–after months of stagnation triggered by the Bernanke announcement.

It is also possible that we will never get to that stage in this business cycle that began almost six years ago. Yet this cycle might be particularly long because the economy might never sustain a growth rate greater than 3%. As of today, I have to also keep believing that some people in Washington will not let us come near to a debt default because if that were to happen none of this discussion would even matter.